The projection of species distribution models and the problem of non-analog climate

Abstract

By 2100, a quarter or more of the Earth’s land surface may experience climatic conditions that have no modern analog, with novel climates predicted to arise primarily in regions that currently support high levels of biodiversity (Williams et al. 2007). Further, global commerce will continue to transport species beyond long-standing dispersal barriers, potentially unleashing biological invaders into regions outside of those in which they evolved. Global climatic change and biological invasions will each have important and likely synergistic impacts on biodiversity. However, the emergence of non-analog climates (i.e., climatic conditions that do not presently exist) and the introduction of species to new biogeographical settings challenge our ability to anticipate these impacts because little information exists to predict how species may respond under novel environments.