The projection of electric vehicle population growth considering scrappage and technology competition: A case study in Shanghai

Abstract

Electric vehicles (EV) are expected to see a rapid growth in next decades as a substantial measure to achieve global climate goal. This course will be an unprecedented event in the industry history, and it will inevitably influence and change the power grid and the transportation network. The projection of EV population is the basis to coordinate the development of EV and urban systems. This paper proposes a modified Bass diffusion model to fulfill this task. Firstly, advantages of Bass diffusion model are analyzed, while car scrappage and technology competition with internal combust engine vehicle (ICEV) are involved to improve the model. Secondly, performance of the proposed model is evaluated with actual data during 2006–2020, and the EV stock up to 2050 is projected with the assessment of uncertainties. Thirdly, the policy on license plate quota and the ban on ICEV sales are discussed through experiment simulation. In a standard growing mode, EV is expected to dominant the new sales market by 2030 in Shanghai, and to completely replace ICEV before 2050. This research can provide a reference for urban power-transportation integrated system planning, renewable energy consumption, and carbon reduction path design. • The Bass diffusion model is modified with car scrappage and technology competition. • Effects of the license plate quota and the fuel vehicle sales ban are discussed. • Data of a pilot city for electric vehicle applications are collected for modeling. • The EV population growth up to 2050 is described with discussion of uncertainties.