The programming of decisions for disaster and emergency response: A Luhmannian approach

Abstract

Organizations managing disasters face a paradox. They need to build stable, reliable structures that are flexible enough to allow adaptation to such unexpected events. Much planning for concrete disaster response operations involves scenarios. From a Luhmannian perspective, this approach is characteristic of a form of ‘if-then’ conditional programming. Extant research on emergencies and disaster management, however, has remained silent about other than scenario-based planning. This article draws on sociological decision theory to highlight alternative forms of planning for disasters. It presents the possibilities to build stable structures for disaster management by making use of conditional programmes that rely on space instead of scenarios, and by making use of what Luhmann calls ‘programme nesting’. It illustrates this argument with a case study of emergency management in a large German city at the origin of this new planning method.