The prognostic modelling of piezometric levels based on seepage monitoring in earthen dams

Abstract

This paper presents an innovative approach to the prognostic modelling of piezometric levels in earthen dams equipped with automated monitoring systems. The main idea of the approach and the expected prognostic results are illustrated with the example of prediction of piezometric levels in the earthen dam of the Kyiv hydropower plant. This usually complex prediction task is simplified in this approach by means of simple regression models and combined situational and inductive modelling which enables overcoming the excessive uncertainty in time series. To calibrate the interpretation and prognostic models, daily monitoring data of the piezometric levels over a period of eight years was used. To verify the prediction results, monitoring data collected in the three years following this eight-year period was used. The goodness of fit of interpretation models was performed by R2 testing. To assess the goodness of the prediction fit, mean absolute and relative error estimators, as well as the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient, were employed.