The Prognosis of Pineal Parenchymal Tumors: Development and Validation of a Nomogram Based on Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results

Abstract

Pineal parenchymal tumors are exceedingly rare, and optimal disease management has yet to be defined. In this study, we aimed to identify prognostic factors and establish a predictive model for the prognosis of patients with pineal parenchymal tumors. All patients with pineal parenchymal tumors in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database between 1975 and 2019 were reviewed. Data were summarized, and survival was modeled with Cox regression analyses. In addition, a nomogram predicting 5- and 10-year survival probability for pineal parenchymal tumors was developed and validated. We found 691 pineal parenchymal and 1961 pineal region neoplasms during 1975 and 2019 resulting in an incidence of 35%. In total, 441 patients were excluded duetoincompletedata. The final cohort was subdivided into groups based on tumor histology: pineocytomas, pineoblastomas, and pineal parenchymal tumors of intermediate differentiation. Multivariate Cox analysis identified age and beam radiation as prognostic factors in pineoblastomas. Age, histology, tumor size, extent of resection, radiation, and chemotherapy were selected to build a clinical nomogram. The C-index for the nomogram was 0.795 (95% confidence interval 0.738-0.852). The calibration curves of the 5- and 10-year survival rates showed good agreement between the nomogram predictions and actual observations. This nomogram is a convenient and precise tool for clinicians to evaluate prognosis of pineal parenchymal tumors.