The productivity gains associated with a junk food tax and their impact on cost-effectiveness.

Hannah E Carter,Lennert Veerman,Deborah J Schofield,Rupendra Shrestha,Nayu Ikeda

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0220209

Hannah E Carter, Lennert Veerman + Show 3 more

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https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0220209

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Abstract

ObjectiveTo estimate the productivity impacts of a policy intervention on the prevention of premature mortality due to obesity.MethodsA simulation model of the Australian population over the period from 2003 to 2030 was developed to estimate productivity gains associated with premature deaths averted due to an obesity prevention intervention that applied a 10% tax on unhealthy foods. Outcome measures were the total working years gained, and the present value of lifetime income (PVLI) gained. Impacts were modelled over the period from 2003 to 2030. Costs are reported in 2018 Australian dollars and a 3% discount rate was applied to all future benefits.ResultsPremature deaths averted due to a junk food tax accounted for over 8,000 additional working years and a $307 million increase in PVLI. Deaths averted in men between the ages of 40 to 59, and deaths averted from ischaemic heart disease, were responsible for the largest gains.ConclusionsThe productivity gains associated with a junk food tax are substantial, accounting for almost twice the value of the estimated savings to the health care system. The results we have presented provide evidence that the adoption of a societal perspective, when compared to a health sector perspective, provides a more comprehensive estimate of the cost-effectiveness of a junk food tax.

Highlights

Overweight and obesity are well established risk factors for a number of chronic diseases including cardiovascular diseases, cancers and diabetes [1, 2]
The productivity gains associated with a junk food tax are substantial, accounting for almost twice the value of the estimated savings to the health care system
The results we have presented provide evidence that the adoption of a societal perspective, when compared to a health sector perspective, provides a more comprehensive estimate of the cost-effectiveness of a junk food tax

Summary

Introduction

Overweight and obesity are well established risk factors for a number of chronic diseases including cardiovascular diseases, cancers and diabetes [1, 2]. The rise in sedentary lifestyles and the increased consumption of energy dense foods has seen worldwide obesity rates more than double since 1980, with the prevalence of chronic disease increasing globally across every region [3, 4]. The most recent Australian Health Survey highlights that 28% of adults are obese, with 63% classified as overweight or obese [6]. Projections suggest that by 2025, the prevalence of overweight and obesity will increase to over 70%, with approximately one third of the adult Australian population classified as obese [7]. Reflecting a similar circumstance globally, WHO member states have introduced a voluntary target to halt the rise in obesity by 2020 [8]

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