The Problems with Troubled Families: Rethinking the Analysis Behind the 120,000 Troubled Families Statistic

Matt Barnes,Andy Ross

doi:10.1017/s1474746421000725

Abstract

In the aftermath of the 2011 England riots, the then Prime Minister David Cameron referred to a ‘small number of families as the source of a large number of problems in society’ (Cameron, 2011). Soon after, the Troubled Families Programme was set up by the government to ‘turn around’ 120,000 troubled families. Despite government rhetoric focusing on ‘neighbours from hell’ (ibid.) the initial estimate of the number of troubled families did not include any indicators of problematic behaviours, such as crime or anti-social behaviour. Instead, a measure previously used by government to classify families with multiple social and economic disadvantages was used (Social Exclusion Task Force, 2007a). This article revisits the research behind the initial identification of the 120,000 troubled families and explores more widely the overlap between families with multiple social and economic disadvantage and their engagement in problematic behaviours. Our reanalysis of the original research data reveals that although families experiencing multiple social and economic disadvantage were at an increased risk of displaying problematic behaviour, only a small minority did so.

Highlights

This year marks a decade since the England Riots of 2011 and the subsequent introduction of the Troubled Families Programme
To explore the overlap between multiple social and economic disadvantage and problematic behaviour we revisit the same dataset used in the SETF research subsequently adopted as the 120,000 troubled families statistic – the Families and Children Study (FACS)
Our reanalysis of the same dataset has shown that families with multiple social and economic disadvantages were at an increased risk of displaying problematic behaviours, such as crime and anti-social behaviour, only a small minority did so

Summary

Introduction

This year marks a decade since the England Riots of 2011 and the subsequent introduction of the Troubled Families Programme. In December 2011, in the aftermath of the riots that had happened across cities and towns in England in August of the same year, David Cameron spoke about plans to improve services for ‘troubled families’, a group the government presented as the root cause behind the riots. In his speech he indicated that the government knew exactly how many troubled families there were: Last year the state spent an estimated £9 billion on just : : : 120,000 troubled families across the country : : :. The 120,000 troubled families statistic was not created alongside the introduction of the Troubled Families Programme It was taken from government research conducted by the Social Exclusion Task Force in 2007 (SETF, 2007a, 2007b). The SETF research found that 2 per cent of families with children in Britain experienced multiple disadvantage – defined as having five or more from a list of seven social and economic disadvantages – which equated to around 120,000 families in England

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