The problems of dilapidated and emergency housing in Russia

Abstract

The relevance of this work is determined by the growth of negative trends associated with the increasing share of dilapidated and emergency housing in the housing stock of Russia. The elimination of such housing is a priority of the housing policy. The aim of the study was to identify the causes of the sharp increase in uninhabitable housing and to assess the prospects of solving this problem in the near future. The rapid accumulation of such housing is associated with low rates of demolition or decommissioning, insufficient capital repairs and shortage of newly commissioned housing. The scientific novelty of the article is as follows. Using the methodology of regional typologies construction, the authors estimate the dynamics of changes in the situation with housing unfit for living in different regions of the country for 2010-2016; the number and housing supply of the population living in such fund are calculated. Resettlement of citizens from dilapidated housing is one of the most pressing issues relating primarily to the poor and socially vulnerable segments of the population. Many resettled people are provided with obviously low quality housing. Scenarios for changing the share of dilapidated and emergency housing have been developed, including calculations of the number of people that will have to live there under certain housing policy options. Application of the scenario modeling method made it possible to draw original conclusions about the prospects of reducing the time of liquidation of uninhabitable housing, which differ from similar results of other researchers. In the preparation of forecasts, the measures of the state housing policy in 2013-2017 aimed at the elimination of emergency housingwere taken into account. Forecasts with such approaches are used for the first time. The results of the study can be used in the work of Federal and local authorities, in the implementation of the Federal project "Ensuring sustainable reduction of uninhabitable housing", as well as in scientific works on this issue.