The price of agave in Mexican states holding Designation of Origin of Tequila status, and its systematic depreciation over the forthcoming decade (2000-2031)

Abstract

In the last two decades, the price of agave in states holding Designation of Origin of Tequila (DOT) status has been subject to uncertainty. This mixed sequential investigation identifies the variables that affect its value, verifying the cause of the problem. Using Minitab software, Pearson’s correlation analysis is applied to the most important variables and time-series predictive methods are applied to forecast them. The correlation analysis verified that the production of agave is not correlated with its price, in contrast to the production of tequila, its export and the income from its export. Since 2016, the price and production of agave systematically reduced its annual average growth until reaching negative levels in 2021, contrary to the production, export of tequila and its income (the five variables maintain this trend for the next 10 years). It is shown that the problem of the agave price at the end of the last decade is not due to imbalances in its supply, suggesting that the oligopoly of leading companies of the tequila agroindustry in Mexico controls its value.