The Price Difference and Trend Analysis of Yesso Scallop (Patinopecten yessoensis) in Changhai County, China

Abstract

This paper focuses on the difference in inter-group and intra-group price of Yesso scallop (Patinopecten yessoensis) and the simulation accuracy of three different exponential smoothing models in the price. Based on the farm-gate price and wholesale price data of P. yessoensis in Changhai county from January 2017 to December 2018, this study uses the Wilcoxon rank sum test to compare the inter- and intra-group price and applies simple exponential smoothing (SES), Holt’s linear trend method, and Holt-Winters’ additive method to simulate and predict the price. The results suggest that (i) to improve economic benefits, it is necessary to formulate reasonable farming area and establish low-density ecological cultivation mode; (ii) the price’s Akaike information criterion (AIC) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) values by the SES model are optimal, and the MAPE value is lower than 4%; and (iii) the result of SES analysis shows no obvious change from January to March 2019.