Abstract
AbstractWe analyse the impact of the Presidential Amnesty Programme on crude oil production in Nigeria. The President of Nigeria instituted an amnesty programme in June 2009 to end the disruptive protests in the oil‐producing Niger Delta. Between 2006 and 2009, it is estimated that crude oil production losses exceeded 650,000 barrels per day, dramatically reducing government revenue. The amnesty programme provided militants a state pardon, educational training and a monthly stipend in exchange for the surrender of weapons. In this research, we use disaggregate oil‐well‐level data to estimate a difference‐in‐difference model of Nigerian crude oil production. The estimates reveal that the Presidential Amnesty Programme increased the oil output in the Niger Delta by about 40 per cent above the level that would have been achieved in the absence of the policy.
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