The President's Dilemma: Open-up versus Lock-down Amid COVID-19 - Using Game Theory to Study the Optimal Strategies to Combat the Pandemic

Abstract

Between controlling the virus and boosting the economy, it has become a ГўВҖВңPresidentГўВҖВҷs DilemmaГўВҖВқ, in which determining the optimal time to open-up the economy while still being able to contain the virus is the presidentГўВҖВҷs top priority. In this study, we utilize game theory examples to illustrate various scenarios of the PresidentГўВҖВҷs Dilemma and provide possible game theory tools to obtain the optimal solutions. For the normal simultaneous game, the Nash equilibrium is at (Open-up, Lock-down). For the GDP vs mortality game, Open-up is a more cost-effective option. In the Bayesian game, if the proportion of the governors siding with the president q>=1/3, the President would choose Open-up while if q<1/3, he would choose Lock-down. The Stackelberg game point out the possible study path to figure out the leader-follower roles and related factors.