Abstract
Abstract New Zealand climate during the early to middle Miocene was subtropical to warm-temperate, in contrast to the predominance of cool-temperate climates in New Zealand today. Both modern and Miocene environmental settings of New Zealand are strongly moderated by the surrounding ocean. Seasonal moisture deficits occur today in rain shadow regions in New Zealand, but the potential and nature of seasonal moisture deficits under globally warmer conditions is uncertain. Here, we reconstruct seasonal moisture balance (precipitation – potential evapotranspiration) using seasonal temperature and mean annual precipitation estimates derived from early to middle Miocene (23–11 Ma) fossil leaf assemblages, combined with a Penman-Monteith model for potential evapotranspiration. The model incorporates uncertainty in temperature, precipitation, vapor pressure deficit, radiation and wind speed. Our results suggest that three out of nine sites investigated have a very high potential for summer moisture deficits (lowest monthly moisture balance
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