The presence and nature of a near-repeat pattern of motor vehicle theft

Abstract

The discovery of near-repeat patterns of criminal offending indicates that certain crimes possess a property of contagiousness that increases the likelihood of future crime events within a close spatio-temporal proximity to earlier offenses. This study investigates whether a near-repeat pattern of offending exists for motor vehicle theft (MVT) in Lincoln, Nebraska. Results indicate the presence of a near-repeat pattern of MVT offending. Specifically, there is a 96 percent increased likelihood of an MVT occurring between one and two blocks, and within 2 weeks of an earlier MVT beyond what would otherwise be expected. Having identified such a pattern, socio-demographic characteristics are used to estimate the relationship between structural correlates of the community and both all MVTs and the MVT ‘initiator’ events that represent the initial offenses that spawn patterns of near-repeat offending. Results indicate that both initiator events and MVTs in general are more likely to occur in disadvantaged communities. Implications of these findings are discussed.