The predictive value of ultrasound markers for pregnancy outcomes in recurrent pregnancy loss: a retrospective study

Abstract

Establishing prediction models of pregnancy outcomes for recurrent pregnancy loss women at specific gestational weeks will provide patients and physicians with more precise information, ultimately leading to time and cost savings associated with unnecessary revisits. Therefore, our aim was to develop a prediction model for first trimester pregnancy loss in RPL patients. We used ultrasound indices during the first trimester of pregnancy in combination with demographic characteristics and commonly used serum markers. The independent risk factors for each week were as follows: age and P in the fifth week; age, mGSD and CRL in the sixth week; age, hCG and CRL in the seventh week; CRL in the eighth week; mGSD and CRL in ninth week. The corresponding AUC was 0.671, 0.796, 0.872, 0.871, 0.813, respectively. There is a linear relationship between age and first trimester pregnancy loss. hCG < 69,636.6 mIU/ml was associated with a higher risk of pregnancy loss in the seventh gestation week. An mGSD < 18.3 mm, adjusted for age, BMI, and previous pregnancy loss in the sixth week, was linked to an increased risk of first trimester pregnancy loss. A small CRL measurement (less than 2.4 mm, 9.9 mm, 16.9 mm, and 18.6 mm) in the sixth, seventh, eighth and ninth week was closely correlated with higher risk of first trimester pregnancy loss. Furthermore, an mGSD < 33.3 mm and > 48.3 mm in ninth gestational week was associated with a higher risk of pregnancy loss. These models and thresholds may help physicians and patients make more informed decisions together. Further studies are needed to confirm the results.