The Predictive Value of the HOSPITAL Score and LACE Index for an Adult Neurosurgical Population: A Prospective Analysis

Abstract

The HOSPITAL score (HS) and LACE index (LI) are 2 validated methods for quantifying the risk of 30-day unplanned readmission after discharge. However, neither score has been validated in the neurosurgical population. This study evaluated the HS and LI in the neurosurgical population as effective predictors for 30-day unplanned readmission. We performed a prospective, cohort analysis of all consecutive adult patients admitted to the neurosurgical service between October 1, 2018 and May 1, 2019. Patient medical records were used to calculate HS and LI. HS defined groups as low risk (0-4), intermediate (5-6), and high (7-12); LI defined risk as low (1-4), moderate (5-9), and high (10-19). Data analysis used univariate and multivariate logistic regressions. The 1242 patients included 626 women (50.4%). The average age was 57.9 years, and most patients (86.5%) underwent surgery during their admission. In multivariate logistic regression, intermediate-risk HS was not predictive of 30-day readmission (odds ratio [OR], 1.04; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.57-1.88; P= 0.53), whereas high-risk HS did predict readmission (OR, 2.87; 95% CI, 1.49-5.54; P= 0.002). Likewise, moderate-risk LI was not predictive of 30-day unplanned readmission or mortality (OR, 1.59; 95% CI, 0.88-2.85; P= 0.12); however, high-risk LI did predict unplanned readmission or mortality (OR, 2.58; 95% CI, 1.16-5.73; P= 0.02). Both HS and LI showed poor to moderate discrimination (C= 0.62 and 0.60, respectively). A high-risk HS and high-risk LI were predictive of 30-day unplanned readmission. Although neither score is ideal for predicting moderate risk for 30-day unplanned readmission in neurosurgical patients, both have some predictiveness that may be clinically valuable.