Abstract
Objective To explore the predictive value of modified version Essen stroke risk score(ESRS)for recurrent cerebral infarction in 1 year. Methods Factors of cerebrovascular and ≥ 2 lesions in diffusion weighted imaging(DWI) which reflected large vascular stenosis and unstable plaques to the ESRS were added, and the 2 factors of other cardiovascular diseases andperipheral vascular disease which were difficult to operate clinically and had a lower incidence compared with the European and American people were got rid of. Thus, the total score of the modified version ESRS was still 9 scores. The risk of recurrent cerebral infarction in 1 year in 263 patients with cerebral infarction were evaluated by ESRS and modified version ESRS, and the predictive value was evaluated by area under receiver-operating characteristics(ROC)curve. Results The incidence of recurrent cerebral infarction in 1 year in 263 patients with cerebral infarction was 15.59%(41/263). There were statistical differences in the incidences of recurrent cerebral infarction in 1 year for different risk stratification patients by 2 methods(P <0.01). Multiple factor Logistic regression analysis results showed that the cerebrovascular and ≥ 2 lesions in DWI were the independent risk factors in predicting recurrent cerebral infarction in 1 year(OR = 12.48 and 18.72, 95% CI 5.083-30.641 and 7.718-43.242, P = 0.000 and 0.000). The area under ROC of predicting recurrent cerebral infarction in 1 year by ESRS and modified version ESRS was 0.68(95% CI 0.58-0.79)and 0.70(95% CI 0.60-0.79), and there was statistical difference(P<0.01). Conclusions The predictive value of modified version ESRS in recurrent cerebral infarction in 1 year is higher than that of ESRS, and it is an effective method. Key words: Cerebral infarction; Recurrence; Predict; Essen stroke risk score
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