The predictive value of modified version Essen stroke risk score for recurrent cerebral infarction

Abstract

Objective To explore the predictive value of modified version Essen stroke risk score(ESRS)for recurrent cerebral infarction in 1 year. Methods Factors of cerebrovascular and ≥ 2 lesions in diffusion weighted imaging(DWI) which reflected large vascular stenosis and unstable plaques to the ESRS were added, and the 2 factors of other cardiovascular diseases andperipheral vascular disease which were difficult to operate clinically and had a lower incidence compared with the European and American people were got rid of. Thus, the total score of the modified version ESRS was still 9 scores. The risk of recurrent cerebral infarction in 1 year in 263 patients with cerebral infarction were evaluated by ESRS and modified version ESRS, and the predictive value was evaluated by area under receiver-operating characteristics(ROC)curve. Results The incidence of recurrent cerebral infarction in 1 year in 263 patients with cerebral infarction was 15.59%(41/263). There were statistical differences in the incidences of recurrent cerebral infarction in 1 year for different risk stratification patients by 2 methods(P <0.01). Multiple factor Logistic regression analysis results showed that the cerebrovascular and ≥ 2 lesions in DWI were the independent risk factors in predicting recurrent cerebral infarction in 1 year(OR = 12.48 and 18.72, 95% CI 5.083-30.641 and 7.718-43.242, P = 0.000 and 0.000). The area under ROC of predicting recurrent cerebral infarction in 1 year by ESRS and modified version ESRS was 0.68(95% CI 0.58-0.79)and 0.70(95% CI 0.60-0.79), and there was statistical difference(P<0.01). Conclusions The predictive value of modified version ESRS in recurrent cerebral infarction in 1 year is higher than that of ESRS, and it is an effective method. Key words: Cerebral infarction; Recurrence; Predict; Essen stroke risk score