The predictive value of C-reactive protein (CRP) in acute pancreatitis – is interval change in CRP an additional indicator of severity?

Abstract

BackgroundUsing revised Atlanta classification defined outcomes, we compare absolute values in C-reactive protein (CRP), with interval changes in CRP, for severity stratification in acute pancreatitis (AP). MethodsA retrospective study of all first incidence AP was conducted over a 5-year period. Interval change in CRP values from admission to day 1, 2 and 3 was compared against the absolute values. Receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) curve and likelihood ratios (LRs) were used to compare ability to predict severe and mild disease. Results337 cases of first incidence AP were included in our analysis. ROC curve analysis demonstrated the second day as the most useful time for repeat CRP measurement. A CRP interval change >90 mg/dL at 48 h (+LR 2.15, −LR 0.26) was equivalent to an absolute value of >150 mg/dL within 48 h (+LR 2.32, −LR 0.25). The optimal cut-off for absolute CRP based on new, more stringent definition of severity was >190 mg/dL (+LR 2.72, −LR 0.24). ConclusionInterval change in CRP is a comparable measure to absolute CRP in the prognostication of AP severity. This study suggests a rise of >90 mg/dL from admission or an absolute value of >190 mg/dL at 48 h predicts severe disease with the greatest accuracy.