The predictive probability of mortality in the presence of full-thickness burns

Abstract

IntroductionPrognostication of burn injury mortality is challenging. Recent mortality prognostication tools have incorporated the percent of full-thickness surface area (FTSA). We hypothesize that the presence of full-thickness burn injury independently increases in-hospital mortality. MethodsWe performed a retrospective review of the National Trauma Data Bank (NTDB) from 2007 to 2019 of adults (≥16 years old) with burn injuries. Variables evaluated included basic demographics, presence of inhalation injury, percent TBSA, and percent FTSA burned. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. We performed modified Poisson regression modeling adjusting for significant variables to estimate the relative mortality risk. Results75,816 patients met inclusion criteria. When controlling for TBSA, the presence of a full-thickness burn had a relative risk of in-hospital mortality of 1.42 (95% CI 1.09–1.85, p = 0.008). The predicted probability of mortality was 100% at 50% FTSA. ConclusionThe presence of full-thickness burns and the proportion of full-thickness burns independently and significantly increased in-hospital mortality. Therefore, clinicians should utilize prognostication models incorporating percent full-thickness burn area to predict mortality more accurately.