The Predictive Measurement of Musical Success

Abstract

1 HE most striking development in the measurement of musical aptitude1 in recent years has been the sharp and persistent decline in interest in the topic in the United States. There are exceptions, of course, but in many quarters this decline is now almost complete. The reduced status of aptitude testing in music at present is particularly noteworthy because it stands in such marked contrast to the intense activity of earlier decades of this century, beginning with the publication of Carl Seashore's test battery in 1919. As evidence of this decline, I can report the publication of only two new standardized tests in the English language in the last 10 years, one in the United States and one in the United Kingdom, though several have been revised. Not only are fewer aptitude tests published currentlyr but unpublished tests are also less numerous. A glance through Dissertation ilbstracts or through a typical bibliography of doctoral dissertations on music testing or on the psychology of music, for example, will usually reveal that only a small fraction of the experimental work going on in music testing has to do with the development of aptitude tests. In order to determine whether the use of aptitude tests is increasing or decreasing, I sought to gather data on the sales of established tests (those 10 years old or older). I was unable to collect much information on this point because publishers were reluctant to reveal competitive sales figures; but what I was able to assemble, though equivocal, did not bear out my hypothesis. Informal data from the publishers of the three such tests that appear to be technically adequate indicated that the sales of these batteries are tending to increase. This apparent discrepancy, I believe, is explainable. First, even though sales may be increasing, I suspect that the rate of increase is lower than the rate of increase of the student population and thus a smaller percentage of students is being tested. Second, it is possible or even likely, that much of the increase in volume is due to the needs of the rapidly proliferating research and development agencies, materials and resource centers, and similar noninstructional institutions. Third, an increase in dollar sales