The predictive accuracy of the american college of surgeons national surgical quality improvement program surgical risk calculator in patients undergoing major vascular surgery

Abstract

Aim: The American College of Surgeons (ACS) National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) Surgical Risk Calculator (SRC) was developed to estimate the rates of complications for patients undergoing a variety of surgical procedures, based on the patient's preoperative demographics and medical conditions. Its predictive ability has been evaluated in a number of studies for a variety of surgical fields. There has so far been no assessment of the SRC in patients undergoing vascular surgery. This study assesses whether the ACS NSQIP SRC can accurately predict risk of complications in patients undergoing major vascular surgery at a tertiary hospital. Methods: A retrospective review of prospectively collected data was performed on all patients who underwent an open abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair, an endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR), or a femoral-popliteal bypass graft (FPBG) from July 2016 to April 2017. A total of 95 patients had their demographics entered into the ACS NSQIP SRC, and the predicted rates of complications were compared to the observed rates of complications. Results: Statistical analysis was performed with Brier scores and C-statistics. This analysis found the ACS NSQIP SRC accurately estimated the risk of complications with a Brier score of 0.044 for EVAR, 0.068 for open AAA repair, and 0.0752 for FPBG. The C-statistics for serious complications, any complications, and discharge to a nursing home or rehabilitation indicated the model was good at accurately predicting the risk of these outcomes. Conclusion: The ACS NSQIP SRC accurately predicts the rates of complications in patients undergoing vascular surgery.