The Predictive Ability of Business Panel Assessments and Start-up Firm Survival

Abstract

University-based incubators guide entrepreneurs through the start-up and growth process. They also create and provide many opportunities for new firms to develop their network with the business environment, get coaching assistance, and perhaps most importantly develop their business models and business plans. Within incubators, the progress of participants is often monitored by letting the participants pitch before an expert business panel. The feedback from these business panels can provide valuable input for the further development of the new ventures. However, little is known about the predictive power that business panel assessments have in predicting venture survival and growth. In this paper, we will explore the predictive ability of business panel assessments of business planning and business pitches and start-up firm survival in a university-based incubator context. We used business panelists’ assessments of 216 high tech start-ups business plans and pitches. We found that the most important predictor of success by business panel expert evaluations was the quality of the team. The attractiveness of the industry was a negative predictor of start-up firm survival.