The prediction of violent behavior: toward a second generation of theory and policy.

Abstract

The "first generation" of research studies on the prediction of violent behavior found such prediction to be highly inaccurate. Many social policy changes were implemented or recommended on the basis of that research. More recently, a second generation of research and theory on violence prediction has begun to develop that emphasizes the limitations of the existing body of research, points to possible improvements in predictive technology, and evaluates public policies involving violence prediction only in the context of the feasible alternatives to those policies.