The prediction of the Korean Basketball League (KBL) winning percentage: Applying the possession concept

Abstract

[Purpose] The purpose of this study was to predict winning percentage in the Korean Basketball League(KBL) by applying the possession concept. [Methods] The model to estimate possession was utilized by formula used in NBA(National Basketball Association). Data consist of 20 seasons of the KBL (1997-2017). For data analysis, multiple regression analysis, Fisher’s Z transformation and stepwise multiple regression analysis were performed using SPSS 22.0. [Results] The result indicated that average team stats per possession had more explanatory power in predicting the KBL teams’ winning percentage than average team stats per game. The most important factor for winning in the KBL was defensive rebounds and followed by 2-point field goal percentage, steals, 3-point field goal percentage, free throw attempts, turnovers, offensive rebounds, blocked shots, free throw percentage, and assists. The results of this study provided fundamental information for the data analysis of Korean basketball games. It might be useful for basketball coaches to manage and instruct their teams. [Conclusion] Practical implications and future research direction were also suggested.