The prediction of Freight Throughput Capacity development of major coastal ports in China

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a new dynamic analysis model, which combines the first-order one-variable grey differential equation model GM(1, 1) from grey system theory and Markov chain model from stochastic process theory, to develop the prediction model of Freight Throughput Capacity (FTC). We abbreviate the combined GM(1, 1) Markov Chain model as MGM(1, 1) model. In addition, we apply Taylor approximation method to MGM(1, 1) to enhance the prediction power. We call the improved version as T-MGM(1, 1) model. As the illustrative example, we use the statistical data recording of China's FTC of major coastal ports for a validation of the effectiveness of the T-MGM(1, 1) model.