The Prediction of Flow Stress in the Hot Compression of a Ni-Cr-Mo Steel Using Machine Learning Algorithms

Abstract

The constitutive model refers to the mapping relationship between the stress and deformation conditions (such as strain, strain rate, and temperature) after being loaded. In this work, the hot deformation behavior of a Ni-Cr-Mo steel was investigated by conducting isothermal compression tests using a Gleeble-3800 thermal simulator with deformation temperatures ranging from 800 °C to 1200 °C, strain rates ranging from 0.01 s−1 to 10 s−1, and deformations of 55%. To analyze the constitutive relation of the Ni-Cr-Mo steel at high temperatures, five machine learning algorithms were employed to predict the flow stress, namely, back-propagation artificial neural network (BP-ANN), Random Committee, Bagging, k-nearest neighbor (k-NN), and a library for support vector machines (libSVM). A comparative study between the experimental and the predicted results was performed. The results show that correlation coefficient (R), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute value error (MAE), mean square error (MSE), and average absolute relative error (AARE) obtained from the Random Committee on the testing set are 0.98897, 8.00808 MPa, 5.54244 MPa, 64.12927 MPa2 and 5.67135%, respectively, whereas the metrics obtained via other algorithms are all inferior to the Random Committee. It suggests that the Random Committee can predict the flow stress of the steel more effectively.