The prediction of civil violence to the year 2001

Abstract

Abstract Annual predictions of global deaths from civil war to the year 2001 have been made based on an earlier two‐stage cyclical model. In stage one three cycles (8.6, 17.4, and 34 yr) predict to changes in the global political system, while four cycles (5.6, 9.4, 20.5, and 54 yr) predict to changes in the global economic system. In stage two, changes in the political and economic systems predict to changes in the level of civil violence. Fifteen regression equations, four tables, and six diagrams are included with the text