The prediction of cement energy demand based on support vector machine

Abstract

Aiming at the energy waste problems resulting from the contradiction between energy demand and supply in cement production, an energy demand prediction model based on support vector regression is built. And energy consumption of a cement enterprises in Shanxi cement production line, for example, to validate the model simulations show that the model has good predictive results. 1. Introduction The cement industry has always been one of high energy-consuming industries,whose energy consumption accounts for about 8% of national energy consumption,while it accounts for more than 40% of the total cement production and consumption. Now energy shortages and rising energy prices have been restricting the development of the cement industry, so the cement companies must reduce energy consumption to the minimum range as much as possible, so as to reduce the cost of cement production to make the cement have a price advantage in modern industry, and promote the rapid development of the cement industry. It is imperative to predict the energy consumption of the cement production and then control it according to the results. This article establishes SVM model on the basis of the daily electric energy consumption in April 2014 in Shanxi Province 1# cement line, and predicts according to the model results, makes simulation experiments using MATLAB software, and compare the performance with the gray prediction GM(1,1), and make a conclusion that SVM can better predict the energy consumption in cement production. 2. Analysis of Energy Consumption in cement companies At present cement production adopts basically new dry production technology. It has largely replaced the out processes, as wet process or kilns, and achieved certain results in terms of increasing the production of cement companies. But, the higher yield also brings higher energy consumption (1). Depending on the scale of cement production line, there may be differences in cement technology, but basically there will be crushing and pre-homogenization of raw materials, raw material preparation, coal preparation, clinker, cement grinding, cement packing and delivery and so on. Within a certain range, each step of the cement business in energy consumption can directly reflect the scene of the energy consumption of cement. So forecasting the energy consumption of every cement production line can reflect the energy consumption of cement each process to a certain extent and reflect the energy consumed in cement production. The cement company managers can predict the results which based on cement consumptions to find the cause of abnormal consumption and control it. So they can achieve effective development of cement production. The energy consumption in the cement production process is a power and coal. The two parts accounts for more than 99% of the total energy consumption of the entire production. This only predicts the electricity consumption of a single step in the cement production process. Every cement production needs electricity. In the present new dry cement production, the electricity that really used for material for grinding is less than 20% in the total electricity consumption of the cement production process, while the sum of the key facilities of energy consumption on the total cement production process accounts for more than 80% of the cement production process. Research on the energy