The Prediction of Academic Success and Early Attrition by Means of a Multiple-Choice Biographical Inventory

Abstract

Although there have been many studies concerned with the usefulness of motivational variables in the selection of students, the initially positive results have often disappeared on cross-validation. Many institutions have consequently limited their use of psychometric devices to ability tests, realizing that motivation plays a large role in the determination of success but being unable to measure it adequately. Recently, several investigators (e.g., Anastasi, and others, 1960; Fricke, 1963) have stimulated the study of the utility of non-test trial predictors (Bellows, 1961) of academic success. Anastasi's Biographical Inventory, which consists of essay and objective questions on background, has been shown to be a useful predictor of a composite criterion consisting of grades, faculty ratings, and extra-curricular activities of students. Also, preliminary data on Fricke's Opinion, Attitude and Interest Survey, a set of 396 non-obvious true-false items, indicate the value of this inventory for predicting multiple criteria. However, inventories such as Anastasi's and Fricke's, although useful in showing the way, usually undergo a marked decrease in validity when applied in a situation other than that in which they were devised. Therefore, some colleges may choose the more expensive but occasionally more fruitful approach of constructing their own inventories.