Abstract
The Southern High Plains is anticipated to experience significant changes in temperature and precipitation due to climate change. These changes may influence the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) in positive or negative ways. We assessed the potential changes in clutch size, incubation start date, and nest survival for lesser prairie-chickens for the years 2050 and 2080 based on modeled predictions of climate change and reproductive data for lesser prairie-chickens from 2001–2011 on the Southern High Plains of Texas and New Mexico. We developed 9 a priori models to assess the relationship between reproductive parameters and biologically relevant weather conditions. We selected weather variable(s) with the most model support and then obtained future predicted values from climatewizard.org. We conducted 1,000 simulations using each reproductive parameter’s linear equation obtained from regression calculations, and the future predicted value for each weather variable to predict future reproductive parameter values for lesser prairie-chickens. There was a high degree of model uncertainty for each reproductive value. Winter temperature had the greatest effect size for all three parameters, suggesting a negative relationship between above-average winter temperature and reproductive output. The above-average winter temperatures are correlated to La Niña events, which negatively affect lesser prairie-chickens through resulting drought conditions. By 2050 and 2080, nest survival was predicted to be below levels considered viable for population persistence; however, our assessment did not consider annual survival of adults, chick survival, or the positive benefit of habitat management and conservation, which may ultimately offset the potentially negative effect of drought on nest survival.
Highlights
The lesser prairie-chicken has experienced as much as a 97% decline in population size [1] and similar suspected declines in occupied area from historic levels
Our results suggests with high certainty that nest survival will decrease to a level that is considered below the threshold for population persistence by 2050
We suggest the results we witnessed for nest survival are reliable because current ambient environmental conditions on the study area often exceed ranges that are considered suitable for stable nest environments (34– 40uC;,10% relative humidity; [39]), and temperatures are predicted to increase with subsequent climate change
Summary
The lesser prairie-chicken has experienced as much as a 97% decline in population size [1] and similar suspected declines in occupied area from historic levels. Previous studies have examined the reproductive ecology of lesser prairie-chickens on the Southern High Plains [2,3,4,5] and similar studies are currently being conducted elsewhere across the species distribution. The influence of drought and climate change on lesser prairie-chicken reproductive ecology has, to date, been largely overlooked. This is of concern, as lesser prairie-chickens appear to be sensitive to landscape alterations [6,7] and drought [8,9]. Landscape alterations and management (e.g., herbicide treatment of shrubs, grazing systems) appear to influence resource selection, survival, and reproductive success of lesser prairie-chicken populations
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