The Predicted Future of Psychotherapy: A Decennial e-Delphi Poll.

Abstract

Whither psychotherapy in the 2030s? Following a decennial tradition, the authors conducted an e-Delphi poll on the future of psychotherapy in the United States. A panel of 56 psychotherapy experts participated in two rounds of predictions and achieved consensus on most items. The experts forecast multicultural, mindfulness, and cognitive-behavior therapies to increase the most, whereas classical psychoanalysis, reality therapy, and gestalt therapy to decrease the most. Technological, relationship-building, strength-oriented, skill-building, and self-change interventions were expected to rise. Master-level clinicians of multiple professions were projected to expand while psychiatrists to decline in the proportion of psychotherapy rendered. Therapy platforms with the highest likelihood of flourishing were videoconferencing, texting, smartphone applications, and multiple or flexible platforms. Short-term therapy, crisis intervention, and very short-term therapy were predicted to increase the most. Forecast scenarios with the highest likelihood were therapy personalization, treatment of health problems, requirement of evidence-based practices for insurance reimbursement, and integration of psychotherapy into primary care. Limitations of the Delphi methodology are elucidated, and practice implications for health-service psychologists are advanced.