The Predicates of Military Detention at Guantánamo: The Role of Individual Acts and Affiliations

Abstract

The military detentions at Guantánamo have provoked intense controversy. Judges, legislators, and military officials disagree sharply about the scope of detention authority. To date, little is known about the granular determinants of decisions to transfer detainees from custody at the Cuban base or to prolong their detention. This article exploits a novel data set of classified documents disclosed by the Wikileaks organization to explore two questions now dividing officials, legislators, and judges. First, what are the detainee actions and affiliations that predict longer detentions? Second, what is the relationship between a determination that a detainee committed certain acts and the further inference of affiliation with a proscribed terrorist organization? These inquiries isolate both continuities and divergences from the law “on the books.”