Abstract
BackgroundCountries in the World Health Organization (WHO) European Region are reporting more severe influenza activity in the 2015–2016 season compared to previous seasons.ObjectivesTo conduct a rapid risk assessment to provide interim information on the severity of the current influenza season.MethodsUsing the WHO manual for rapid risk assessment of acute public health events and surveillance data available from Flu News Europe, an assessment of the current influenza season from 28 September 2015 (week 40/2015) up to 31 January 2016 (week 04/2016) was made compared with the four previous seasons.ResultsThe current influenza season started around week 51/2015 with higher influenza activity reported in Eastern Europe compared to Western Europe. There is a strong predominance of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 compared to previous seasons, but the virus is antigenically similar to the strain included in the seasonal influenza vaccine. Compared to the 2014/2015 season, there was a rapid increase in the number of severe cases in Eastern European countries with the majority of such cases occurring among adults aged <65 years.ConclusionsThe current influenza season is characterized by an early start in Eastern European countries, with indications of a more severe season. Currently circulating influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses are antigenically similar to those included in the seasonal influenza vaccine, and the vaccine is expected to be effective. Authorities should provide information to the public and health providers about the current influenza season, recommendations for the treatment of severe disease and effective public health measures to prevent influenza transmission.
Highlights
Each year, seasonal influenza is estimated to affect 5–10% of the world’s population resulting in between 250 000 and 500 000 deaths, as well as causing significant costs to health services
The RRA was conducted using the World Health Organization (WHO) manual ‘Rapid risk assessment of acute public health events’ according to a list of risk questions (Table 1).[5]. It is based on data available on Flu News Europe’ (FNE) between 28 September 2015 and up to 31 January 2016 as well as historical data from 4 previous influenza seasons. It includes information from the WHO risk assessment – seasonal influenza A(H1N1)pdm[09] published on 8 February 2016 – and the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) risk assessment – seasonal influenza 2015–2016 in the EU/EEA countries published on 8 February 2016.6,7 The WHO recommendations arising from this RRA have already been published to support timely and appropriate control measures in Member States of the WHO European Region
We evaluated the trend of influenza activity for influenza-like illness (ILI), acute respiratory infections (ARI) and severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) compared with the four previous seasons
Summary
Seasonal influenza is estimated to affect 5–10% of the world’s population resulting in between 250 000 and 500 000 deaths, as well as causing significant costs to health services. In the 2014–2015 influenza season, there was an unusually high excess mortality in the 15 European countries participating in the European monitoring of excess mortality for public health action (EuroMOMO).[1] An estimated 217 000 premature deaths occurred among the elderly; many of which are likely to be due to influenza. Countries conduct influenza surveillance to determine when and where influenza activity is occurring, detect changes in the antigenic and genetic characteristics of seasonal influenza viruses, describe the clinical patterns of influenza and risk factors for severe disease, assess the relative severity of the season and detect unusual events due to influenza.[2] In the World Health Organization (WHO) European Region, this surveillance is coordinated by the WHO Regional Office for Europe and the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) which jointly publish the weekly influenza update ‘Flu News Europe’ (FNE) between weeks 40 and 20 of each year.[3]. Countries in the World Health Organization (WHO) European Region are reporting more severe influenza activity in the 2015–2016 season compared to previous seasons
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