The Potential of Rice Field Development as a Hinterland for The New Capital City

Abstract

Rice fields in North Penajam Paser Regency continue to experience conversion. The plan to move the capital city to North Penajam Paser Regency can lead to an expansion of paddy field conversion. Babulu Subdistrict is a sub-district in North Penajam Paser Regency that has the largest area of rice fields, so it has considerable potential for providing food for the new capital city. In order to forecast rice fields in 2031 using cellular automata-markov chain modeling and to examine the potential of rice fields in the hinterland area of the future capital city, this study will look at changes in land use from 2009 to 2020. Land use changes were interpreted using 2009 Landsat 5 TM and 2014 and 2020 Maxar Technologies imagery. The driving factors used in this research are distance from road, distance from settlement, distance from river, slope, and elevation. The findings revealed that the number of rice fields in the Babulu Subdistrict raised in 2014 and declined in 2020. The rice fields’ transformations took place in places with easy access and level terrain. Rice fields are predicted to decline in 2031 because they have turned into oil palm plantations. Priority III dominates the potential for rice fields in Babulu Subdistrict with regard to the suitability of land development directives. Meanwhile, Priority I has the smallest area and is in the lowlands, which tend to be flat, far from roads, close to rivers, and immediate to irrigation networks.