The potential of repeated mean arterial pressure measurements for predicting early- and late-onset pre-eclampsia in twin pregnancies: Prediction model study.

Abstract

To investigate the contribution of longitudinal mean arterial pressure (MAP) measurement during the first, second, and third trimesters of twin pregnancies to the prediction of pre-eclampsia. A retrospective cohort study was conducted on women with twin pregnancies. Historical data between 2019 and 2021 were analyzed, including maternal characteristics and mean artery pressure measurements were obtained at 11-13, 22-24, and 28-33 weeks of gestation. The outcome measures included pre-eclampsia with delivery <34 and ≥34 weeks of gestation. Models were developed using logistic regression, and predictive performance was evaluated using the area under the curve, detection rate at a given false-positive rate of 10%, and calibration plots. Internal validation was conducted via bootstrapping. A total of 943 twin pregnancies, including 36 (3.82%) women who experienced early-onset pre-eclampsia and 93 (9.86%) who developed late-onset pre-eclampsia, were included in this study. To forecast pre-eclampsia during the third trimester, the most accurate prediction for early-onset pre-eclampsia resulted from a combination of maternal factors and MAP measured during this trimester. The optimal predictive model for late-onset pre-eclampsia includes maternal factors and MAP data collected during the second and third trimesters. The areas under the curve were 0.937 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.894-0.981) and 0.887 (95% CI 0.852-0.921), respectively. The corresponding detection rates were 83.33% (95% CI 66.53%-93.04%) for early-onset pre-eclampsia and 68.82% (95% CI 58.26%-77.80%) for late-onset pre-eclampsia. Repeated measurements of MAP during pregnancy significantly improved the accuracy of late-onset pre-eclampsia prediction in twin pregnancies. The integration of longitudinal data into pre-eclampsia screening may be an effective and valuable strategy.