Abstract
In recent years there have been several discussions on a greater use of natural gas nationwide. Moreover, there have been several announcements by the private and public sectors regarding the construction of new pipelines to supply natural gas to the Peruvian southern and central-north markets. This paper presents future scenarios for the use of natural gas in the large-sized industrial and commercial sectors of the country based on different hypotheses on developments in the natural gas industry, national economic growth, energy prices, technological changes and investment decisions. First, the paper estimates the market potential and characterizes the energy consumption. Then it makes a selection of technological alternatives for the use of natural gas, and it makes an energetic and economic analysis and economic feasibility. Finally, the potential use of natural gas is calculated through nine different scenarios. The natural gas use in cogeneration systems is presented as an alternative to contribute to the installed power capacity of the country. Considering the introduction of the cogeneration in the optimistic–advanced scenario and assuming that all of their conditions would be put into practice, in 2020, the share of the cogeneration in electricity production in Peru would be 9.9%.
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