The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Pasture and Cattle Production in Mongolia

Abstract

The objective ofthis study was to assess the impact of climate change on plant and livestock production in several natural regions of Mongolia. The Simulation of Production and Utilization of Rangelands model was used for the assessment of the climate impacts. Long-term (1961–1990) climatic data and biophysical and physiological parameters of pasture grassland and cattle were used in the study. The selection of simulation sites for the study was based on regions where there are many cattle. Climate change scenario data were obtained by combining historical weather data from each site with predicted output from general circulation models. Results from baseline runs were compared with four climate change scenarios and a scenario with baseline climate conditions and doubled carbon dioxide (2×CO2). The impact of climate change on pasture production is estimated to be negative in the Gobi desert area and favorable in colder regions. Livestock intake and livestock weight are estimated to generally decline in late summer when digestibility is lower. Average daily weight gain of Mongolian steers that have only pasture forage is estimated to be lower, whereas it is estimated that there will be no negative effects on the weight gain of steer that are provided supplemental feed.