The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Europe

Abstract

GCMs project higher temperatures for all of Europe, with greater changes at higher latitudes. In Northern and Western Europe, winter precipitation may increase, and summer precipitation may remain unchanged. Different models show different changes for Southern, Central and Eastern Europe. Water resources follow roughly the same patterns, although higher temperatures increase the risk of summer droughts, particularly in Southern and Central Europe. In Western Europe, river floods may increase. Vegetation patterns may drastically change, with some species and communities expanding and other shrinking. Particularly vulnerable are ecosystems depending on northern cold, and ecosystems isolated by geography or human activity. On the whole, agriculture would seem to benefit from climatic change, although not-well-understood pests and water availability may alter this. Sea level rise would negatively affect low-lying coasts and deltas, which support important natural and human systems. In a warmer climate, cold-related health problems would decline, but heat-related ones would increase. Tentatively, the balance is reduced mortality. Less important climate-related diseases would, on balance, increase. Research on other sector has progressed less far; results show mixed positive and negative impacts. Expressing all impact in money and adding up suggests a light negative overall impact of climate change on Europe.