The potential impact of super‐volcanic eruptions on the Earth's atmosphere

Abstract

In the last 50 years, three large volcanic eruptions have perturbed weather patterns across the whole globe: the eruptions of Agung in Bali, Indonesia in 1963; El Chichon in Mexico in 1982; and Mt Pinatubo in Luzon, Philippines in 1991. Before these, two of the most devastating eruptions witnessed and recorded were those of Tambora, Indonesia in 1815 and Laki, Iceland in 1783. The years following each of these two large eruptions were abnormally cold in parts of Europe and North America, causing crop failure and famine (Oppenheimer, 2003; Thordarson and Self, 2003). There have, however, been volcanic eruptions in the last million years which dwarf all of these. These ‘super-eruptions’, which are orders of magnitude greater than Pinatubo and Tambora, have not been witnessed in historic times, though they are quite common in geological terms. It is inevitable that another such eruption will occur at some time in the future and so it is important that we attempt to quantify their impact on the atmosphere using measurements from previous eruptions and from simulated eruptions. This will allow us gain a good understanding of the stresses that will be put on society following the next supereruption and how they may be mitigated.