The potential impact of Brexit on the energy, water and food nexus in the UK: A fuzzy cognitive mapping approach

Guy Ziv,Elizabeth Watson,Dylan Young,David C Howard,Shaun T Larcom,Andrew J Tanentzap

doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.08.033

Guy Ziv, Elizabeth Watson + Show 4 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.08.033

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Journal: Applied Energy	Publication Date: Aug 30, 2017
Citations: 55	License type: cc-by

Affiliation: University of Leeds, University of Cambridge

Abstract

Energy is one of the cornerstones essential for human life, along with other services such as water and food. Understanding how the different services in the energy-water-food (EWF) nexus interact and are perceived by different actors is key to achieving sustainability. In this paper, we derive a model of the EWF nexus using fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM). Data were collected in a two-step approach from workshops with researchers and stakeholders involved in the three focal sectors. Four FCMs were developed; one for each of the EWF sectors, and one for the interactions that create the nexus between EWF. The FCM represents the combined views of the groups who participated in the workshops, the importance and limitations of which is discussed. To demonstrate its effectiveness, the aggregated FCM was applied to predict the impacts on the EWF nexus of four scenarios under which the United Kingdom would depart from the European Union (i.e. Brexit). The FCM indicated that energy-related concepts had the largest influence on the EWF nexus and that EWF demand will decrease most under a ‘hard-Brexit’ scenario. The demand for energy was shown to decline relatively less than other services and was strongly associated with gross domestic product (GDP), whereas UK population size had a stronger effect on water and food demand. Overall, we found a threefold change across all concepts in scenarios without freedom of movement, contribution to the EU budget, and increased policy devolution to the UK.

Highlights

Energy is one of the cornerstones essential for human life, along with other services such as water and food
The aggregated fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) was applied to predict the impacts on the EWF nexus of four scenarios under which the United Kingdom would depart from the European Union (i.e. Brexit)
We developed and applied a FCM approach to analyse the consequences of Brexit for United Kingdom (UK) energy, water and food demand

Summary

Introduction

Energy is one of the cornerstones essential for human life, along with other services such as water and food. The consumption of water in the life-cycle of energy production can limit its availability for domestic uses such as drinking and sanitation [9] Such competition amongst energy, water, and food may only be exacerbated by future climate change, economic development, and a growing human population [10]. Policy, sourcing, and pricing of energy, water, and food in the UK are currently influenced by membership of the EU through access to free trade, subsidies, legislation, and membership of the internal energy market; all of which will see changes following the negotiations for a UK exit from the EU. What do experts and stakeholders from different disciplinary backgrounds perceive to be the influences on and relationships among food, water and energy demand in the UK?

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