The Potential Health Care Costs And Resource Use Associated With COVID-19 In The United States.

Abstract

With the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, one of the major concerns is the direct medical cost and resource use burden imposed on the US health care system. We developed a Monte Carlo simulation model that represented the US population and what could happen to each person who got infected. We estimated resource use and direct medical costs per symptomatic infection and at the national level, with various "attack rates" (infection rates), to understand the potential economic benefits of reducing the burden of the disease. A single symptomatic COVID-19 case could incur a median direct medical cost of $3,045 during the course of the infection alone. If 80percent of the US population were to get infected, the result could be a median of 44.6million hospitalizations, 10.7million intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, 6.5million patients requiring a ventilator, 249.5million hospital bed days, and $654.0billion in direct medical costs over the course of the pandemic. If 20percent of the US population were to get infected, there could be a median of 11.2million hospitalizations, 2.7million ICU admissions, 1.6million patients requiring a ventilator, 62.3million hospital bed days, and $163.4billion in direct medical costs over the course of the pandemic.