The Potential Effects of Policy Changes on Drug Markets in the UK and Australia: Estimates from a Survey of Drug Users

Abstract

One of the barriers to drug policy analysis and reform is uncertainty as to the effects of possible policy changes (Shanahan & Ritter, 2012). This paper will use datafrom the Global Drug Survey to examine potential effects of policy changes in both the UK and Australian drug markets, based on responses on intended behaviour changes from a sample of over 6,500 self-reported drug users (aged over 16) in each country. The Global Drug Survey is an independent online survey that accesses large samples by collaborating with global media partners such as The Guardian, Mixmag and Gay Times in the UK and Fairfax Media in Australia. It asks respondents to report their drug use and includes questions on how people would change their behaviours in response to three potential policy scenarios which are based on: decriminalisation; legalisation of possession; or legalisation with sale by government monopoly. The paper presents information on the demographics of GDS respondents. It uses latent class analysis to group these respondents according to classes of drug use type that underlie the data. It then analyses the extent to which GDS respondents reported an intention to increase use in response to the different policy scenarios. It analyses differences in these intentions to increase drug use across the policy scenarios and across the classes of drug user. Finally, it uses multinomial regression analysis to test the predictors of observed differences in intentions to increase drug use. These analyses suggest that a minority of GDS respondents would increase their illicit drug use (and reduce their alcohol use) under more lenient policy scenarios. Intentions to increase drug use tended to increase under progressively more lenient policy scenarios. People whose pattern of substance use is ‘alcohol only’ (i.e. the largest group in the general population of both UK and Australia) were less likely to report an intention to increase their drug use. GDS respondents in both countries who were male, gay or bisexual, or young were more likely to report an intention to increase drug use.