Abstract
The contradiction between limited resources and rapid development in the automobile industry has been driving society to seek the supply of recyclable resources from End-of-Life Vehicles (ELVs). It has become an urgent need for vehicle recycling policymakers to have an overall understanding of the end-of-life (EoL) vehicle population, as well as for vehicle producers to note what and how they can benefit from ELV recycling. This paper estimated the potential population of EoL passenger vehicles, all recyclable resources from them, as well as the economic values of these recyclable resources. The results show that in 2030, with a lighter-weight trend of passenger vehicles, more than 26.3 million passenger vehicles will be retired with 19.1 million tons of recyclable steel and 6.2 million tons of plastics. The theoretical economic value of all recyclable resources will reach 101.3 billion yuan ($14.4 billion) in 2030, which is an average of approximately 2.4 thousand yuan ($341.8) for each EoL passenger vehicle. It is time for the vehicle producers to shift to a manufacturing mode considering such large potential of ELV recycling. The scenario analysis suggests that in the context of a light-weighting trend, ELV resource recovery in the future calls for improvement in the recycling and reuse technologies of plastics and rubbers.
Highlights
The past decades witnessed the increasingly acute contradiction between limited in-ground ore deposits and the demand for resources along with rapid urbanization [1]
Given the unclear potential of the recyclable EoL passenger vehicle population and a relatively high average recycling cost, it has become an urgent need for both vehicle recycling policymakers to have an overall understanding of the EoL passenger vehicle population, and for vehicle producers to note whether/how they can benefit from EoL vehicle recycling
Instead of discussing the policies directly influencing the resource recycling from end-of-life vehicles (ELVs), such as subsidies on legal ELV recycling, adjusting qualification standard of automobile dismantling, and the like, this paper focused on the trend of passenger vehicle retirement in response to the long-term economic factors, which lays the foundation for further analysis of short-term policy changes
Summary
The past decades witnessed the increasingly acute contradiction between limited in-ground ore deposits and the demand for resources along with rapid urbanization [1] Such contradiction has been driving society to search for other supply sources of secondary materials, compounds, or elements from anthropogenic stocks, namely, through urban mining [2]. Given the unclear potential of the recyclable EoL passenger vehicle population and a relatively high average recycling cost, it has become an urgent need for both vehicle recycling policymakers to have an overall understanding of the EoL passenger vehicle population, and for vehicle producers to note whether/how they can benefit from EoL vehicle recycling The awareness of both recycling policymakers and vehicle producers may generate more incentives to promote resource recovery within the automobile industry, and further for a more sustainable development pathway of the whole industrial network
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