The Post-Cold War European Landscape: The Aftermath of the `Velvet Revolutions' in Central-Eastern Europe

Abstract

1. In Quest of Historical Coordinates The abrupt collapse in 1989 of the totalitarian 'people's democracies' in the outer perimeters of the Soviet empire in Central-Eastern Europe, in the arc from Eastern Germany to Bulgaria, has taken an entire world by surprise. This was a unique cataclysmic event. Indeed, we lack a proper theory of history to explain fully the phenomenon of a largely nonviolent, except for Romania, rapid overthrow and definite demise of an authoritarian sociopolitical system on so broad a front, combined with the breakout from the stillfunctioning empire that installed and protected this system. No wonder that nobody right or left, political scientists, historians and politicians could sense and foresee the course of events. Even the actors themselves, as evidenced by the pre-electoral round-table power-sharing accords between the forces of change and those of the old regime, did not anticipate such a fast and expeditious powershift. Reformers themselves were astounded by the extent of enervation, self-doubt and inner political erosion that led the former communist ruling elites to abdicate from power. Thus it is vital to ascertain the historical coordinates of events and arrive at a deeper comprehension of their dynamics. This is essential not only to understand the past better, but also to appraise correctly the drama that is still unfolding in the countries that embarked on systemic change, so that we may try to gauge its future curvatures, with possible implications for broader questions of peace and war. After all, if history is any clue, the problems of Central-Eastern Europe did prove pivotal to conflicts that resulted in this century in two world wars as well as the Cold War.