The populist ambivalence. Presidents and democracy in Latin America

Abstract

ABSTRACT This article aims to explore the conditions under which populist presidents undermine, preserve or improve democracy, with evidence from Latin America. We address five varieties of democracy in the region (electoral, liberal, participatory, deliberative, and egalitarian) from 1994 to 2019 in 18 countries and focus on the backsliding or its absence during each presidential term. To do so, we rely on a QCA approach, through which we interpret the changes on each variety, acknowledging the presence/absence of populist presidents, presidents’ popularity, political and economic critical junctures, support for democracy, an institutionalised party system and political stability. Results show an ambivalent relationship between populism and democracy as highlighted by part of the literature. Although populism emerges as an almost necessary condition for democratic backsliding in any variety, there are several cases where the presence of populist presidents led to an improvement of democracy in the different aspects analysed.