The population dynamic in Russian municipal formations from 2010 to 2018

Abstract

During the period from the end of 2010 and up to the beginning of 2018, after a long pause, we saw an increase in the population of the Russian Federation. Meanwhile, on most of the country’s territory the population has not ceased to decline in recent years. This is very apparent when analyzing the demographic situation on the level of first order municipalities – city districts and municipal areas. Indexes of natural population growth during recent years have exceeded values from the first decade of the 21st century. However, in 80% of municipalities a negative dynamic is evident compared to 2010, primarily due to natural decline. Natural decline is often accompanied by a negative balance in the migratory flow of the population. As a result, depopulation in certain cases reaches catastrophic proportions – at over 2% each year. This article examines peculiarities in the differentiation of natural population increase and migratory flow of Russia’s population by city district, municipal area, and broken down by territory (as in by federal district). It was revealed that negative trends are more inherent to municipal areas than they are to city districts. The most complicated situation with indexes of death rate and birthrate can be observed in municipalities of the Central, North-West and Privolzhsky Federal Districts. Mostly due to an intense migratory outflow, the population is decreasing in many municipal formations of the Far Eastern Federal District. As was the case in previous decades, the most favorable demographic situation can be observed in the North Caucasian Federal District. Meanwhile its municipal formations are gradually approaching the rest of Russia in terms of population birthrate and death rate indexes. Though this trend is of ambiguous nature, since, on the one hand, it evens out the excessive interregional socio-economic differentiation we see in Russia, while on the other it has a negative effect on the country’s demographic development in general. The migratory outflow of the population from the majority of North Caucasian municipal formations narrows the foundation for this region’s demographic development in the future.