The Polls in the Independence Referendum: Much Disagreement, Little Light

Abstract

Unsurprisingly, opinion polls of how people intend to vote in the referendum on 18 September have become a prominent feature of the referendum campaign. At first glance they have painted a picture of remarkable stability, albeit with some narrowing of the lead of the No side over Yes during the winter of 2014. However, different companies’ polls have consistently produced substantially different estimates of the level of support for Yes and No. Although there are also some important differences between the polls in the ways in which they are being conducted, there is no simple correspondence between the method used and tendency to produce a relatively high or low level of support for Yes. It is thus far from clear why different polls are producing different results, resulting in considerable uncertainty about the exact state of the referendum race.