The politics of water scarcity in the Middle East

Abstract

In the current debate over the politics of water in the Middle East, there are three main questions at issue. First, has water scarcity caused war in the past? On this question, most, but not all, writers answer ‘yes’: we argue ‘no’. Second, will water scarcity cause war in the future? On this question, opinion is more evenly divided. Many writers, especially in the 1970s and 1980s, have answered ‘yes’. But many others, especially in more recent years, have answered ‘no’ for three main reasons; ‘virtual’ water, desalination and water pricing. Our answer is ‘no’, but for a deeper reason than the above three explanations. In our view, the reason why water scarcity will not cause war in the future is because water is too precious to risk by going to war. Third, will water diplomacy assist peace negotiations? Most writers answer ‘no'; our answer is ‘quite possibly, yes’. In our discussion of these three questions we adopt the theoretical framework provided by the environmental security debate, and we consider three cases; water politics in the Jordan River basin, the Euphrates‐Tigris basin, and the Arabian Peninsula. Our overall conclusion is that water scarcity has served more to reinforce peace than to provoke war, and that it is likely to continue to do so in the future.