The politics of decrementalism: The case of soviet-japanese salmon catch negotiations, 1957–1977

Abstract

Locating the Soviet-Japanese fishery negotiations of 1957–1977 in the broader perspective of emerging ocean politics, a time series model of negotiation processes and outcomes is constructed to show that the negotiations can best be characterized as the politics of decrementalism. A state space equations model allows some advantage over more conventional estimating procedures. Such a model is constructed to show the nature and characteristics of the decremental outcomes in the bilateral negotiations of 1957–1976 and takes account of the major policy intervention of 1962. The model is used to predict the 1977 negotiation outcomes on the basis of parameters recursively estimated from the 1957–1976 data set. The model, which applies to the bilateral subsystem of a supranational system, gives good predictive performance. Some conclusions and implications are drawn for conflict and its resolution in the context of Soviet-Japanese relations, as well as in the context of bilateral negotiations in the new ocean order.