The politics of a carbon transition: An analysis of political indicators for a transformation in the German chemical industry

Abstract

Abstract Globally, the chemical industry is under pressure to reevaluate its dependence on imported crude oil and natural gas as raw materials and to undergo a carbon transition which is based on the sustainable utilization of domestic primary and secondary carbon feedstock alternatives for its chemical production. While industry and political interest in different carbon transition options is observable, decision-makers can be paralyzed by indecision due to challenges posed by conflicting policy targets, complexity of the regulatory environment as well as path dependence along institutional and socio-political dimensions. To support appraisal of the politics of a carbon transition in the chemical industry, a case analysis of the German chemical industry using three political indicators namely supply security, carbon pricing and regulatory framework is carried out. In addition to imported crude oil and natural gas, the case analysis evaluated biomass (biogas and wood waste), coal (bituminous coal and lignite), carbon dioxide and waste (municipal waste, sewage sludge and plastics) as alternative primary and secondary carbon feedstock for chemical production. The political indicators provided important quantitative and qualitative information of systemic impacts associated with different carbon feedstock options and supported a comparative overview of political drivers and obstacles, as well as trade-off challenges and uncertainties faced along the political dimension in promoting different carbon transition options for the German chemical industry. This study represents a first effort to illustrate and break down the complexity of the political dimension of a transformation in the chemical industry. The approach utilized is transferrable to other contexts and sectors to support political evaluations of sustainability transitions.